Peavy, Prior, Young, Maddux, Wolf
That, my friends, is the potentially devastating pitching rotation for your San Diego Padres. The Friars agreed with Cubs former-phenom pitcher Mark Prior today to a $1 million, 1-year deal that contains incentives worth an extra $2 million.
Prior’s had a tough career since leaving his home town San Diego. Sure he was drafted first overall, but in six injury-plagued years with Chicago’s lovable losers, he’s alternated flashes of brilliance with time on the trainer’s table. Prior hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2005, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2007. Both he and the Padres are betting he can stay healthy long enough to establish Prior as a dominating force off the mound while leading the hometown boys deep into the playoffs. There’s no denying the upside of this deal, but the Padres still have not addressed their need to bring in a big bat. It’s hard to win the World Series when the best hitters in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene.
Though I live and work in San Diego, I grew up in the Los Angeles area and remain a Dodgers fan. So, if you’re talking potential for devastating pitching staffs, I’ll offer the Dodgers’ staff here:
Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Jason Schmidt
The Padres have two health-related question marks (Wolf, Prior) to the Dodgers’ one (Schmidt). Each team has a guy on the decline — Maddux and Lowe — but Lowe’s much younger. The Padres’ current ace (Peavy) is much more dominant than the Dodgers’ ace (Penny), but Billingsley has a higher upside than Young, in my opinion, and the Dodgers have a potential difference maker in Kuroda, whom scouts say is just a step below Boston’s Dice-K. They say Kuroda is a ground-ball-inducing machine.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have picked up Andruw Jones to play center field, giving L.A. this lineup:
C – Russell Martin
1B – James Loney
2B – Jeff Kent
SS – Rafael Furcal
3B – Nomar Garciaparra / Andy LaRoche
LF – Juan Pierre
CF – Andruw Jones
RF – Matt Kemp / Andre Ethier
Compare that to the Padres:
C – Josh Bard
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Tadahito Iguchi
SS – Khalil Greene
3B – Kevin Kousmanoff
LF – Scott Hairston
CF – Jim Edmonds
RF – Brian Giles
The Pads HAVE to upgrade in left field.
Of course, I have to acknowledge that the Dodgers have a MUCH higher payroll than the Padres.
Meanwhile, the current Padres roster per ESPN.com includes the following household names: Callix Crabbe, Brian Myrow, Oscar Robles, Craig Stansberry, Paul McAnulty, Colt Morton, Drew Macias, Mauro Zarate, Justin Hampson, Joe Thatcher, Carlos Guevara
Sounds more like an open casting call for West Side Story
Penny had a career year last year in which his ERA was almost a full run lower than his career ERA (3.03 in 2007, 3.90 career), so expect that to return to normal. Lowe was a .500 pitcher last year (12-14), Schmidt’s career ERA is 3.94, and last year he nearly doubled that. Billingsley may be an up and comer. Kuroda is a mystery, but I’d be nervous about comparisons to Dice-K if I were a Dodgers fan (Dice-K has a great K-BB ratio, but he gave up 25 HRs for a 4.40 ERA). Meanwhile Peavy is awesome (as you concede), Prior at his best was as good as Peavy, Chris Young had a 3.12 ERA, and also should get better this year. Maddux may be done, but he has good days, and Randy Wolf just stinks. But I’d still take the Padres’ rotation over the Dodgers’ any day.
But I’d much rather have the Dodgers’ lineup. The Pads need help in left field, yes, but also right field and center field, so they don’t have a guy with 42 career homers (Iguchi) batting third. Ouch.
Be careful of judging on career statistics — they can be very misleading. I prefer to consider trajectory and other factors.
The comments you make suggest that you have become a homer in your short tenure in San Diego. You cite Prior at his best, but you don’t do the same for Schmidt. You also cite Schmidt’s 2007 ERA, which was injury-plagued and short. You also say that Young “should be better” this year than a 3.12 ERA — on what grounds?
Oops. I just noticed that you say Randy Wolf stinks, so maybe you’re not as much of a homer as I thought you were. But you’re wrong on that score, too. Wolf won nine games in the first half of 2007 before being injured. He’s pretty damn good if healthy. Big if. On balance, I’d take Peavy over Penny, Young over Lowe, Billingsley over Maddux, Kuroda over Wolf and Schmidt over Prior (based on severity of injury and reports of their rehabs). So, the Pads have a much better top two, but the Dodgers have a much better bottom three.
Randy Wolf is overrated. He keeps getting good money because he was good in 2002. But the last five years, he’s been injured, his ERA is over 4.00, and opponents batted better than .270 against him. He’s 32, and he’s not going to get better or healthier. Jason Schmidt had a few solid years with the Giants (and one very good one, in 2003), but he will be 35 in January. His best years are past. Derek Lowe will also be 35. That leaves the Dodgers with a bunch of old guys, one up and comer, and throwing the dice on Kuroda. And by the way, Billingsley is at least your no. 2 guy. He’s better than Schmidt and Lowe. Kuroda, who knows?
Mark Prior was awesome in 2002, solid for a few years, very bad in 2006 before he got really hurt. But he’s also 26. I’ll take Prior over Schmidt. Chris Young is 27, and each of the last 3 years his ERA has dropped by .3 runs. Even if he stays the same as last year, that’ll be fine. Maddux will turn 57 in February. So, the Pads are throwing out there a (potentially) devastating front 3, a guy who will throw 200 innings and probably have a .500 record, and one bad pitcher. If everyone on both teams stays healthy, the Padres are have a much better rotation, if all the likely injuries happen, then maybe it swings back to the Dodgers. But if the Pads get to the playoffs, Peavy and Young inspire more fear in opponents than Penny and Billingsley.
The real wild card here is Kuroda. No one knows if he’s good or not. But temper your expectations, Japanese starters haven’t done that well here (Dice-K absolutely fell apart last fall). At least he gets to pitch against the Padres a bunch of times.
I wouldn’t include a guy (Prior) who won’t even make his first start until the end of May (under the best of circumstances) in your “devastating” list, even with the “potentially” qualifier.
As for Wolf, before his injury problems, his full-season ERAs were 4.36, 3.70, 3.20 and 4.23, which are all better than average. And last season, he struck out 94 in 102 innings, which is an awesome rate.
Also, I guarantee you that Billingsley will be the third or fourth starter, definitely behind Lowe and maybe Kuroda. That’s why I put him up against Maddux.
As for Kuroda, scouts say he’s the real deal. He pitched in a hitters park in Japan, and he’ll pitch in a pitchers’ park here.
Arguing about baseball is fun.
Without conceding any points about Randy Wolf (who has been bad for 5 years, striekout ratio or no), i want to go back to this question of lineups. I perused the dodgers lineup, and the pads lineup and I’ve decided they’re both equally awful. the Dodgers have two good hitters: Russell Martin and Jeff Kent. Nomar, Furcal, Jones, and Juan Pierre are no better than anyone on the Padres, at laeast not at this stage of their careers. And of those two good hitters, Jeff Kent is going to be 40 when the season starts. if Loney isn’t the real deal, the Dodgers lineup will actually be worse than the Pads. Both of these teams need to catch lightning in a bottle (Prior, Schmidt, Kuroda, Giles, Nomar, Loney) to be better than that.
Matt Kemp hit .342 in nearly 300 at bats last year. Loney hit .331 in 344 at bats. The Twins would likely have taken those two plus a pitcher for Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the majors. I would have gone on a killing spree had they done it. I’d prefer it the Dodgers trade Pierre and give LF to Ethier, but even if they don’t, they have two guys who can steal 80 bases between them, with Kemp stealing another 20-25. The Padres don’t have anything like that. I wouldn’t underestimate the power of the running game. The Dodgers hit .275 as a team last year. The Padres hit .251. The Padres had 28 more totals bases than the Dodgers, but Jones should take care of that. Keep in mind, even though Jones hit only .220, he hit 26 homers and 94 RBI in what was considered an awful year for him. Also, Furcal played hurt all year.
I’m afraid I’m going to have to disagree with your conclusion.