Political pronostications by a puerile pundit
January 3, 2008 - 11:54 am
To my colleague Eric Wolff, I’m going to disagree with your prognostications. Ron Paul placing third in New Hampshire? Really, Wolff, what have you been snorting? I’m thinking it’ll come out this way:
Iowa Dems: Edwards, Obama, Clinton
Iowa Repubs: Huckabee, Romney, McCain
New Hamp Dems: see above
New Hamp Repubs: see above
Why? Simple—it’s a cold winter and Edwards and Huckabee have the warmest personalities. Sounds totally lame, I know, but appearance is everything, message is nothing. Who’d want to curl up by the fire with Hillary? Yak.
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A friend and former colleague of mine once said the candidate that the public perceives as the happiest person usually wins. That would back Kelly’s picks, I think.
But neither Edwards nor Huckabee is gonna win New Hampshire. I say:
Iowa: Obama, Edwards, Clinton
Iowa: Romney, Huckabee, McCain
NH: Obama, Clinton, Edwards
NH: McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee
I think (and kinda hope) Dave’s predictions are about right. But with the Iowa entrance polls throwing things out of whack and the possible muted bounce on both sides, who knows.