Will Dems back Aguirre?

The San Diego Democratic Club‘s newsletter just arrived in the mail and it contains some interesting stats compiled by SDDC member Kevin Davis (no relation).

* Mayoral contender Steve Francis beat out Jerry Sanders in District 4 (Southeast San Diego) and also did well in District 8 (Barrio Logan, Logan Heights, Golden Hill).

* Sanders’ best showing was in District 1 (La Jolla, UTC)

* City Attorney Mike Aguirre was the winner in Districts 3 (Hillcrest, Uptown, North Park), 4 and 8

This month, the Dem Club plans to revisit its endorsement for City Attorney. In the primary, the club endorsed Scott Peters, who finished third behind Aguirre and Jan Goldsmith. The City Attorney’s office is non-partisan, but Goldsmith’s a Republican and—I may be wrong on this—but the club can’t endorse a Republican (even Bonnie Dumanis, who’s openly gay—like most Dem club members—didn’t get their endorsement when she ran for DA in 2002). So the question becomes this: Will the Dem Club endorse or not? They endorsed Aguirre in 2004, but this past March, opted to take no position on the race. Three weeks later, the club endorsed Peters. If Aguirre, who came in second behind Goldsmith in the primary (29 and 32 percent of the votes, respectively) can win over Democrats who voted for Peters (assuming Peters’ 43,243 votes were Dems) and Amy Lepine (12,669), he’ll easily best Goldsmith who’ll have his 68,264 primary votes plus Brian Maienschein’s, 26,236. Whew—that’s a lotta numbers. Let’s total them all up:

Goldsmith: 94,500
Aguirre: 117,106

OK, the turnout will be higher (hopefully) and the numbers will be bigger, but I predict Aguirre gets around 20 percent more votes that Goldsmith. Any wagers?